The USD/RUB spiked when reports came in Russia had invaded the Ukraine. Traders and investors dumped the Ruble. As soon as there was news the Russian troops would back down, the Ruble gained strength again against the USD. The worse the situation gets in the Ukraine, the stronger the USD/RUB will react. The opposite is true as well, if things start to settle in the Ukraine it's likely that you will see a stronger Russian Ruble. So, the better or worse the news, the stronger the market's reaction. Well see how this plays out. I think the main indicator during this fiasco is the USD/RUB. Keep an eye on this pair if you want to jump into any trades involving Russia. Normally, this is a pretty volatile pair, but a geopolitical issue like this may make this an easy trade. I think (hope) that Russia won't escalate this matter any further, especially after reports came out that Russian troops were pulling back. Therefore I'm short the USD/RUB (36.400), and see the pair trading around 'normal' levels (34 / 35 range) again soon. Consequently, I'm bullish on the RSX ETF, though I haven't made a final trade since this ETF is not as quickly to respond to major events in Russia, unlike foreign exchange. For a list of Russian ETF's, take look here.
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Ukraine crisis directly reflects the USD/RUB and Russian ETF's
The USD/RUB spiked when reports came in Russia had invaded the Ukraine. Traders and investors dumped the Ruble. As soon as there was news the Russian troops would back down, the Ruble gained strength again against the USD. The worse the situation gets in the Ukraine, the stronger the USD/RUB will react. The opposite is true as well, if things start to settle in the Ukraine it's likely that you will see a stronger Russian Ruble. So, the better or worse the news, the stronger the market's reaction. Well see how this plays out. I think the main indicator during this fiasco is the USD/RUB. Keep an eye on this pair if you want to jump into any trades involving Russia. Normally, this is a pretty volatile pair, but a geopolitical issue like this may make this an easy trade. I think (hope) that Russia won't escalate this matter any further, especially after reports came out that Russian troops were pulling back. Therefore I'm short the USD/RUB (36.400), and see the pair trading around 'normal' levels (34 / 35 range) again soon. Consequently, I'm bullish on the RSX ETF, though I haven't made a final trade since this ETF is not as quickly to respond to major events in Russia, unlike foreign exchange. For a list of Russian ETF's, take look here.
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