Is the Euro too overbought?

Interestingly enough currency traders are flocking to the 'safe haven' of the Euro now that the conflict in Libya escalated into a full blown war, and Japan is still suffering from the tsunami. The Euro currency trading is one of those trading vehicles that at the moment I'm trying to stay away from as much as possible, due to its unpredictability. Even although I see the Euro being severely overbought (its actual value should lie around 1.10 -1.15) I still keep in mind the currency pair EUR/USD was trading even higher at the end of 2009, when it was trading in the 1.50 range.
I think with a European debt crisis looming, the pair should sooner or later drop dramatically, a 'fall off the cliff' scenario, and if you are on the right side of the grass, you can make a lot of money.
As always the question is when to go short; as you may know, I don't trade currencies directly anymore due to the high risk and leverage requirements. In the end it doesn't matter what chart we look at since we're all depended on the core EUR/USD.
Rather I use ETFs to speculate in the currency markets; In this case the FXE (Currency Shares Euro Trust)

Completing the classic 'Elliot Wave' its next move is bound to be below the 1.40 range (correction). 

Remember, the basic pattern?

According to this diagram, the EUR/USD pair is now in its fifth wave, a steep drop is likely to come in the upcoming days. I see it trading well under 1.3900.