My EUR/USD outlook for the week ahead

Despite commodity currencies on the rise, for me it's hard to analyze which currency exactly to go with. In a case like that there are too many options open at the same time that it makes predicting into what direction to go in too blurry.

What happens next, I'd like to stick to the my 'good-ol' EUR/USD pair that, as you may know by now, I'm trying to specialize in. With the weekend behind us and trading week ahead of us let's take a closer look. My indicators (and myself surprisingly we're on the same line) see a severe overbought market here. With all the bad economic news coming from Europe the Euro hasn't really corrected itself because it was still trading around the same psychological 1.40 line all last week, this is partly due to rising oil prices.

This may change in the upcoming week, depending what wall street of course will do, but better economic date has already been coming from the US. With the wall street markets closed selling pressure has occurred within the pair pushing the USD value against the EUR higher. This may be an indicator that speculators and investor have already begun this process earlier. My position on this trade is certainly a short since two other reliable sources indicate a similar trend, with targets @ 1.3825.


The Fundamentals ahead

- German inflation data suggests risk of deflation for Euro Zone, threat of aggressive ECB action

- Could possibility of a single European financial regulator pose a risk to the Euro?

- Forex options markets point to potential Euro/US Dollar top

- Technical forecast points to potential Euro/US Dollar declines

Happy Trading!